Betting football pro

Betting football pro



January 28th NFL news ... Welcome to Betting football pro, the site for the pro football gambler.

Welcome to Betting football pro, the site for the pro football gambler.

This site was created to help you score a profit come football season. Whether you are looking for the status of an injured player or information on how a team performs away from home, this site gives you everything you need to create an edge over the book.

Log on daily throughout the football season for all of our up to date stats, news, trends, picks and more.

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NFL DOUBLE YOUR WINNINGS
2010-12-02

Wager on the Margin of Victory (Link to Sport Type 1001) prop for tonight’s Texans vs Eagles game. If there is at least one score within the last 2:00 minutes of the 4th Quarter, winning wagers will be doubled up to $50.00 for this specific prop. Terms & Conditions apply (Link to pop-up with T&C’s below)

Terms & Conditions
• Registration is not required for this promotion; you must simply make a wager on the ‘Margin of Victory’ prop for tonight’s Texans vs Eagles game (December 2, 2010).
• Wager on the ‘Margin of Victory’ prop for tonight’s Texans vs Eagles game. If there is at least one score within the last 2:00 minutes of the 4th Quarter, winning wagers will be doubled up to $50.00 for this specific prop.
• This specific promotion only applies to the ‘Margin of Victory’ prop for the Texans vs Eagles game on December 2, 2010.
• ESPN.com will be used for grading purposes for this promotion.
• Bonus winnings will be credited into your account within 24 hours after the completion of tonight’s game.
• Standard rollover requirements apply for all bonus winnings associated with this promotion.
• This promotion can be modified or canceled at anytime.
• House Rules apply. .



Football betting: NFC East/North Regular Season Wins Predictions
2010-08-25

Over under lines from www.sportsbook.com the home of NFL betting.

The Dallas Cowboys (O/U: 10) are hoping to become the first team to ever play in its own stadium at a Super Bowl this season. After gaining a victory in the playoffs last year for the first time since, Dallas could be poised to make a deeper postseason run in 2010. Quarterback Tony Romo leads a balanced offense. The club will need to improve its red zone offense this season after ranking just 14th in the league in scoring offense last year despite finishing 2nd in the NFL in total offense. The schedule appears to be one of the most difficult slates in the league this season. The Cowboys will have to battle five teams on the road that reached the playoffs in 2009. Dallas fails to meet football betting expectations for an under.

The New York Giants (O/U: 8.5) struggled to a 3-8 finish in its final 11 contests of 2009 after a 5-0 start. The collapse of the defense was the main problem for New York. After ranking 5th in the NFL in scoring defense in 2008, the Giants slipped to 30th in the category last year. On offense, quarterback Eli Manning has enabled New York to finish in the top 8 in total offense in each of the last two years. Like Dallas, the Giants must face five playoff squads from 2009 away from home. Once again, New York fails to produce a winning season for an under.

It's a new era for the Philadelphia Eagles (O/U: 8.5) after the offseason trade of veteran quarterback Donovan McNabb. Kevin Kolb and Michael Vick will be counted on to keep Philly's offense moving in 2010. Under McNabb, the Eagles finished in the top 6 in the NFL in scoring offense in three of the last four seasons. With the exception of a trip to Dallas, Philadelphia won't face a team on the road that went to the postseason in 2009. After recording just one losing campaign in the last decade, the Eagles win at least nine games again for an over.

New Washington Redskins (O/U: 7.5) head coach Mike Shanahan is hoping that McNabb will boost a franchise that posted only two winning seasons in the last decade. While the defense has ranked in the top 10 in the league in total defense in each of the last three seasons, the offense has struggled in recent years. McNabb will certainly help but the lack of other playmakers on offense will doom the Redskins to an under in the difficult NFC East.

In the NFC North, the Green Bay Packers (O/U: 10) are looking to build on last year's trip to the playoffs. After ranking in the top 6 in total offense and defense in 2009, the club appears to be strong enough on both sides of the ball to make a run at a Super Bowl bid in 2010. While there are a few difficult road games on the schedule, Green Bay is good enough to get over the number this season.

The Minnesota Vikings (O/U: 9.5) are still waiting on a decision from quarterback Brett Favre. While many football betting skeptics are quick to dismiss Minnesota's hopes without Favre in 2010, the club did win ten games en route to a division crown in 2008 without him. Running back Adrian Peterson and an outstanding defensive line could enable the Vikings to contend this year, if Favre shuts it down. For the third straight year, Minnesota wins at least ten contests for an over.

After being the most aggressive team in free agency this offseason, the Chicago Bears (O/U: 8) are hoping to challenge the Packers and Vikings in the NFC North. While the addition of Julius Peppers will aid the defense, the unit still has some question marks heading into this season. On offense, the lack of quality wide receivers will hinder the club's air attack. Chicago suffers through another losing campaign for an under.

The Detroit Lions (O/U: 5) have been limited to just two wins over the last two seasons. With the recent draft choices of quarterback Matthew Stafford and defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, Detroit has the potential to build something down the line. This year, Detroit improves a little but not enough to avoid an under.


NFL: Is Super Bowl Pointspread Correct?
2010-02-09

Any coach past or present will tell you the game of football is about two things, blocking and tackling. While that is absolutely true in its simplest form, Super Bowl XLIV is different from the past with the possible exception of just a handful of contests for the Lombardi Trophy. Start with the total of this confrontation, set at 56.5, the highest ever, surpassing the Giants and New England figure of 54 points two years ago. The most recent pointspread shows Indianapolis -4.5, with 67% of the betting action at Sportsbook.com on that side.

After the Colts solved the Jets defense in winning the AFC Championship, most educated oddsmakers were thinking Indianapolis as three-point favorite against the winner of the NFC contest. However, since New Orleans was dominated statistically in their matchup by Minnesota, most thought 3.5 or four points would draw relatively divided action. With roughly 15-20 percent of the dollars wagered on the side of the Super Bowl by this past Sunday, the vast majority of the action had been on Indy, moving them to -5.5 points , but the Dwight Freeney news shoved to number back down to -4.5. In breaking down the two teams, is the number accurate?

Peyton Manning vs New Orleans pass defense

Peyton Manning has arguably been the best quarterback in football the last eight years, except when Tom Brady had a better New England club. The Colts have averaged 283 yards passing against teams that allowed 218, that’s almost a 30 percent difference vs. any defense they have taken on this year. Manning makes uncommon sight adjustments to blitzes and gets rid of the ball quickly. New Orleans on the other hand can be riddled by opposing teams via the pass. Take away games this season in which the Saints faced teams who preferred to run like Carolina, Detroit, Buffalo, Miami and the Jets, and the New Orleans secondary surrendered 277.6 yards in the 12 other contests or roughly what the Colts totaled all season. Granted, some the yardage allowed was after New Orleans had built big leads in several early games, but there were a number of late season contests in which they were also torched.

Nobody in football makes better in-game adjustments than Manning and his offensive coordinator Tom Moore and nobody this season did a better job in stopping opposing teams by forcing turnovers than the Saints. Defensive coordinator Greg Williams is on record as saying how they attacked Brett Favre is similar to how they want to get after Manning. The Jets had Darrelle Revis to at least take away Reggie Wayne and they did a good job in limiting Dallas Clark. It does not appear Manning will face those same obstacles against Saints secondary.

Spread Differential – Indianapolis -7

Drew Brees vs Indianapolis pass defense

Drew Brees might not have All-Pro type receivers like Manning has in Wayne and Clark; however he has a stable that any Kentucky thoroughbred barn would be proud of. No team in professional football had a more diverse passing attack than New Orleans. The Saints had seven different players catch 35 balls or more during the regular season. Coach Sean Payton has set up his offense very much like a basketball team that has both exceptional depth and the skill to score points. Only Manning has the ability to scan the field as quickly to find an open receiver as Brees, who also has keen understanding of taking what the offense gives as well as wanting to dictate the tempo to keep the defense guessing. The Colts are better equipped to limit or contain the New Orleans passing game. Bookend defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis can bring a heap of trouble off the edges. Freeney in particular is going to demand a double team, unless his troubled ankle proves otherwise, as normal backup tackle Jermon Bushrod is not equipped to make this a solo project. Mathis’ edge over right tackle Jon Stinchcomb isn’t as definitive; just the same the Colts DE is the better player. Antoine Beathea is an emerging star at safety for the Colts, with the rest of the secondary somewhat dependant on what happens up front.

Spread Differential – New Orleans -3

Indianapolis running game vs. New Orleans front seven

For two teams in the Super Bowl, this is one area that is about as unusual as you will find. The Colts running game is reminiscent of Bill Walsh’s and Joe Montana’s first winning Super Bowl team from the 1982 season. The 49ers were a pure passing team and ran the ball just to give the defense something to preoccupy from time to time. The Indianapolis front office had not been impressed with Joseph Addai since they won the Super Bowl in 2006 season and drafted Donald Brown from Connecticut. Addai doesn’t hit the edges as well on the stretch plays, working better between the B-gaps and making cuts. Indy posts a laughable 3.5 yards per carry against teams that permitted 4.1. The offense line seldom gets a chance to go out and drive block, however does appear less potent in this aspect of the game from the Super Bowl team from three years ago. Beyond Sedrick Ellis, the Saints defense front absorbs more punishment than it creates. New Orleans gives up 4.6 yards per carry, since their linebackers lack extensive speed to quickly fill gaps. It would seem Indianapolis could do business here, but has shown no inclination to commit to the run, rushing over 100 yards twice on last 12 contests. Expect the Colts to be satisfied carrying the ball their usual 23 times and leave it to their MVP to close the deal.

Spread Differential – Even

New Orleans running game vs Indianapolis front seven

Besides turnovers, if the Saints are going to upset the Colts, this is where it has to come from. Guards Carl Nicks, Jahri Evans and center Jonathan Goodwin must have special day opening up holes for Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush. Saints coach Payton needs to show restraint here and get physical upfront with the Colts. Gouging the Indianapolis defense for four to five yards a pop opens up tight end Jeremy Shockey and slot receiver Robert Meacham in the passing game. Payton may try the screen game, however few have had success against linebackers Clint Session, Gary Brackett and safety Beathea, who can all run and are sure tacklers. Instead, as part of the running game, they should include trips (three receiver sets) to the short side of the field, with Bush standing behind them and sending him into motion to the wide side of the field, hopefully drawing a linebacker. This gets Bush in the open field for essentially a screen pass or comeback slant route underneath with blockers, more or less a run play in the Saints’ offense.

Spread Differential – New Orleans -1

Special Teams

Reggie Bush gives the Saints a home run hitter in returning punts, however the way to stop him is what Minnesota did, have the punter sacrifice a few yards to increase kick coverage and get right in his grill upon the catch. Indianapolis continues to spend little time in this area and is strictly run of the mill. Where the Colts have edge is at place-kicker. Matt Stover came in when Adam Vinateri was injured. The 42-year old Stover will be the oldest player ever participate in the Super Bowl and has 20 years experience, including being the Ravens kicker during the 2001 Super Bowl campaign. Stover’s range is limited to about 45-yards, especially outdoors and has made 80 percent (20 of 25) of field goals in his postseason career. Kicker Garrett Hartley is young enough (23) to conceivably be Stover’s son. Hartley has made 24 of 26 field goals in his two years, but the pressure is all together different on the game’s biggest stage. Plus, Hartley has kicked in a dome the last two seasons and realistically is untested, though his game winner over Minnesota was impressive.

Spread Differential – Indianapolis -1

Coaching

It would seem these two coaches couldn’t be any more different with each facing unprecedented scrutiny for the first time. Jim Caldwell, to the chagrin of his team, gave up a 14-0 season and a chance for perfection to be in this position and it worked. Caldwell’s strength is in his beliefs and defensive. He altered the mechanics of the Colts defense, still playing a lot of Cover 2, but blitzed twice as much as his predecessor Tony Dungy. With young players at corner due to injuries, he followed the Colts’ ideologies of players expected to step up and perform. He is a low key leader who trusts his assistants and his team.

Sean Payton’s arrival into the NFL showed a fertile offensive mind who couldn’t devise enough trick plays and use them quickly enough. Like many great offensive teams, the coach and quarterback become one on various levels and Payton has trusted Brees from the beginning. Payton took some lumps the last couple of seasons, which has brought about a new found maturity. As opposed to Caldwell, he embraced the notion of a perfect season when his team was 13-0. He makes no bones about playing to his strength (offense) and turned the defense over this season to Gregg Williams. His biggest task this game is not letting his emotions affect his play calling.

Spread Differential -None

Intangibles

There have been a number of teams that have won their first Super Bowl without having been involved in this maniacal environment, but having the experience is certainly a plus. Teams’ playing in this contest for the first time against experienced foe are desultory 6-11 ATS. Though players say they understand, sometimes its months later in reflection that they realize they were satisfied to make the Big Game as opposed to truly desiring to win it. Payton and Brees have the heart of an assassin, thus their preparation and desire is predicated on going home as champions. The city of New Orleans, with all that has happened once Hurricane Katrina made land, feels like it is playing with house money and welcomes the idea of their football team playing for the city’s first championship, instead of craving it.
The Indianapolis team that was at this same location in 2007 was probably the worst of the four previous (2003-06) Colts playoff teams. That club found a hot rookie running back in Addai and the offensive line got into a bull-dozing mode and they plowed their way to championship. That experience gives the Colts an edge knowing what to expect and what level of performance is necessary. Teams favored by three to six points in this truly American game are 8-2 ATS.

Spread Differential –Indianapolis -3

Bottom Line - Having the best quarterback in the game who doesn’t make many mistakes, a better defense and better than half the roster having Super Bowl experience leads to figure below.

Cumulative Spread Differential – Indianapolis -7


NFL: NFL Week 8 Sightings
2009-11-04

Before bettors can move on to Week 9 in the NFL, it’s important to review what we’ve seen most recently. Let’s take a look back at the Week 8 sightings then get ready to profit this coming weekend. Sportsbook.com already has the LIVE ODDS ready for Week 9, plus the GAME MATCHUPS and BETTING TRENDS to help you prepare.

It was a long Sunday night in Cheese-land and probably a pretty slow work day Monday in much of the state of Wisconsin after Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings defeated the beloved Packers at Lambeau Field late Sunday afternoon. The realization is complete, no matter what Green Bay had hoped for, Brett Favre is still a very good quarterback and he makes the players around him better.

It was also an EXTREMELY painful day for coach Mike McCarthy and GM Ted Thompson, as their worst nightmare came true. About the only thing that will heal this wound is beating Minnesota in the playoffs and going to the Super Bowl. In the end, the Minnesota front office was able to do something Green Bay’s front office wasn’t willing to do, swallow their ego, do embarrassing public groveling and secure the quarterback they needed.

Talking to a bookie in Wisconsin, he absolutely cleaned up, with over 80 percent of his action on the Packers; many betting more than usual because of their desire to have their modern day Benedict Arnold get his.

Here is what we know. Minnesota is decidedly stronger along the offensive and defensive lines than Green Bay. Brad Childress is emulating his former boss Andy Reid in surrounding his quarterback with playmakers who are difference-makers. Coach McCarthy should return his salary for one game for his performance in Week 8.

The sportsbooks returned to the winning side this past Sunday, thanks to two games in particular. Indianapolis was a solid 11-point favorite and was -13 by Sunday morning. A rare off day by Peyton Manning standards exposed just how ordinary Indianapolis offense can be when he’s not right. The boxscore shows Manning passed for 347 yards, however at least seven of his incompletions were throws he usually connects on. San Francisco coach Mike Singletary needs to put in offense with Alex Smith throwing from the shot-gun more, he looks much more comfortable.

The other bonanza was the Giants. Bettors saw Brian Westbrook out, Giants off a pair of bad losses and incredible road record and tripped over themselves to bet the G-Men, moving the line from +3 to -2 at kickoff on New York. The more mentally and physically prepared team was Philly in building 33-7 halftime lead. Eli Manning looks like the quarterback from early 2007 and both lines are unable to compensate for other weakness.

Next Sunday’s night Dallas at Philadelphia should be fun.

Both the Colts and Giants were in a number of parlay and teasers along the San Diego who was -10 in six-point teaser cards, helping the books.

The Buffalo and Carolina game of a week ago had an impact on this past Sunday. The Bills were a fairly popular among handicappers having pulled off consecutive road upsets and at home as underdog. Obviously nobody was watching Buffalo play, as a case can be made Ryan Fitzpatrick is the worst No.2 quarterback in the NFL. He was just awful taking over for Carson Palmer in Cincinnati last season. And despite being the under center for both upsets of the Jets and Panthers, Fitzpatrick had passed for less than 120 yards per game. Nothing changed as he totaled 117 yards thru the air in Buffalo’s convincing 31-10 home loss.

Carolina still has issues, but when they have the right mindset and execute coach John Fox football, these Cats are handful. Carolina was determined from the first snap, something Arizona wasn’t (still gloating evidently from Giants win), and shoved the ball down the throat of supposedly stout run Cardinals run defense for 270 yards. Kurt Warner looked every bit of 38-years old, throwing five interceptions and fumbling. Off a sound performance and catching the Saints off a Monday night game, Carolina is intriguing underdog in the Bayou as underdog having a 7-1 ATS mark in New Orleans. The Cardinals whine about respect playing in the Super Bowl, but dud performances like that only back what people believe about their inconsistency, as does the 1-3 SU and ATS home record. All three losses were as favorites.

Chicago Bears fans have been groveling all season wondering what happened to the Kyle Orton who couldn’t keep starting job in the Windy City. Sunday, they finally saw him in Denver’s whipping by motivated Baltimore team. The public punched the Ravens ticket moving them 1.5-points from early Saturday afternoon to -4.5. Watch for how the Broncos react, with Pittsburgh in the Mile High City next Monday.

Know your Numbers- Teams allowing 40 or more points and playing the following week were 3-0 SU and against the spread, taking their record to 6-2 ATS on the year.—Short numbers have not been healthy for favorites. Home favorites of three or less are 13-10, 12-10-1 ATS and backing small road faves at three or less produces 4-8 SU and ATS record. –After four weeks, NFL favorites were 36-26 ATS, however, that has flattened out, with the chalk 25-28-1ATS the last month. –This has been happening with regularity of lately. Teams traveling three time zones struggle with initial trip. This season, the first 10 games that applied the visitor was 2-8 ATS. The last four contests after coaches knowing what to expect and warning squads are 4-0 ATS. Watch for results of Detroit and San Diego this week.


NFL: NFL Stat Props
2009-08-06

With the NFL preseason getting underway, the regular season isn’t too far behind. Sportsbook will be starting a series of looks at each team and division in the coming days, but to whet your football appetite, we’ve prepared an interview with a professional gambler, breaking down some of the NFL Stat Props now available on the LIVE ODDS page. Read on to see what “Kendall” had to say about the various options, then hit them yourself.

Here is the interview…

We talked to a professional gambler the other day and asked him what makes him different about betting football than other sports bettors. He answered this way, “The professional has studied football for months and already made several long term and short term investments based on his knowledge. Your better-than-average sports bettor has been picking football magazines and started to do his home work, not making many futures bets, and more interested in the regular season and possibly a few NFL preseason games following teams he knows. Your recreational bettor is excited about picking his fantasy team.”

While his assessment might be harsh, it’s closer to the truth than most of us realize. The person we spoke to is named Kendall, who gambles for a living and belongs to wagering syndicate. He asked us to keep his last name anonymous for privacy reasons. Here is his take on a few prop wagers from Sportsbook.com.

What NFL quarterback is best bet to throw for most yards?

Kendall: Drew Brees led this category in 2008 and is favored again at +250. It’s hard to go away from Brees since his coach Sean Payton is essentially the new Mike Martz. Payton loves to throw the ball and has excellent understanding of Brees’ strengths and weakness. This is helped by Brees believing in Payton and digesting offense smartly and playing within his own capabilities. Let’s not forget, the former Purdue QB threw for over 5,000 yards (last season) and that was with Marques Colston and Reggie Bush out for long periods. Brees is not a lock to win this wager, as he is coming off career numbers and faces tougher opposition in 2009.

Tom Brady (+450) will be on a mission after last season. My Boston contacts tell me he is on-target and even more focused, realizing football is a privilege. Don’t expect Brady to play like he did the first half of 2007, nobody ever had before him. I actually like T.B. to win this bet, with only concern three cold weather games in weeks 14-16.

What about the other contenders?

Kendall: Payton Manning makes sense, but don’t like reports and quotes coming out of Colts camp. Definitely contender at +700, yet leery. Save your cash on Kurt Warner at +700. He’s been complaining about hip giving his trouble and will see very little time in preseason. The passing game has to have timing and though Warner is familiar with (Larry) Fitzgerald and (Anquan) Bolden, he suffers early which takes him out of running. I like both Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers at +1000. Green Bay has rather soft early schedule and Rodgers could pad stats like his predecessor. The Packers O-Line is being rebuilt, but I like Rodgers ability to throw on the run and hit big plays. Rivers is actually my favorite choice, but Norv Turner wants better balance and running game could return to San Diego.

My choices in order are Brady, Rodgers and Brees.

Moving on to most rushing yards, who will lead the NFL?

Kendall: It would be plain dumb to bet against Adrian Peterson (+200) since he is the most explosive running back in the NFL. His jitterbug moves in the hole and ability to hit full stride in two steps separates him from the pack. Peterson isn’t automatic however.

The best running back in the NFL in November and December (of last season) was DeAngelo Williams. On the year, Williams averaged 5.5 yards per carry and was over six the last two months. Why Peterson ranks over Williams is because he has a running mate in James Stewart. Williams isn’t built to take 16-game pounding, leaving room for a number of Stewart carries and yards taken away.

One back I would pass on (Michael) Burner Turner for Atlanta. In his first full season, he led the league in carries at around 370 (actually 376), which is heavy load. After monstrous first half, his production fell almost 15 percent. He’ll still be super back, but a bettor can find something more substantial than +500 on Turner.

Do you have any other running backs that could sneak away with rushing title?

Kendall: If the offensive line was better, I’d take Steven Jackson right now. He’s second only to Peterson and is home run threat, which piles up yards. Nevertheless, new coaching staff in St. Louis leaves too many unanswered questions. If Frank Gore is 100 percent healthy, he’s a great long shot at +2500. You know San Francisco will run the ball with Mike Singletary as coach, giving Gore ample opportunity. This will be critical year for Gore’s future, as he averaged 5.4 yards per carry his first two years and 4.2 the last couple. Maurice Jones-Drew is another very good choice and is any conversation about “do-it-all” backs. You have to admire his 4.8 yards per carry and will be featured back with Fred Taylor gone.

My choices in order are Peterson, Jones-Drew and Jackson.

I know you have little use for most of these players, but who leads in pass catching yards?

Kendall: I just wonder where all these guys developed narcissistic personalities. Anyways that has nothing to with winning props. This is the hardest bet of the three by far. Larry Fitzgerald is the odds-on choice at +500 and very difficult to make a case against him. At 26 (years old), he’s in his prime and has played enough to know what is expected. He took the quantum leap in the playoffs to be a star and he has kept his mouth shut in spite of growing celebrity. This year should be the season he’s the best, but Warner’s potential health makes me cringe.

Steve Smith is next at +550, but does anyone really trust 34-year old Jake Delhomme after the way he played in second half? Not me. Andre Johnson was the yardage leader in 2008, having to play with different quarterbacks. What worries me about A.J. is if Matt Schaub goes down again to injury, Dan Orlovsky is the current backup. Reggie Wayne is listed at +700, nonetheless is not big play receiver, having the same number of 20+ yard catches as Wes Welker (13). That means too many catches to win yardage title.

Well who do you like?

Kendall: I actually prefer a couple of longer shots. Nobody missed Brady more than Randy Moss. Not many 32-year old pass catchers are as multi-purpose as Moss, whose number dipped precipitously with (Matt) Cassell better at short passing game. Moss’s focus should return being a bigger part of the passing game and could have one last HUGE season, before really slowing down.

You can’t help but notice Calvin Johnson, literally. He’s 6’5, a pound or two either way of 240 and is as fast as any elite pass receiver. On a team that didn’t win a game, Johnson was fifth in receiving yards and caught 12 TD’s. With better supporting cast, a quarterback like rookie Matthew Stafford who can throw over secondary’s, its not the worst bet you can make at +1000.

My choices in order are Moss, C. Johnson and Fitzgerald.


NFL: Seattle at Dallas (4:15 PM ET, FOX)
2008-11-27

After meeting in a memorable NFC wild-card playoff game in 2006, the Cowboys and Seahawks each captured a division title last season with a combined 23 victories. But neither has defended it well, and in Seattle’s case the playoffs haven’t even been on the radar from the opening kickoff of head coach Mike Holmgren’s final year at the helm. The teams will meet in FOX’s annual Thanksgiving day broadcast, with Dallas looking for a third straight double-digit pointspread holiday win and cover.

This season will mark the first since 2002 that the Seahawks don’t finish atop the NFC West and the first since ’01 they’ll be playoffs spectators. Seattle opened with a 24-point defeat in Buffalo and never really sniffed .500 all season. At 2-9 and 4-6-1 ATS, the Seahawks are likely to finish with their worst record since 1992 when they went 2-14 and set a league mark for offensive futility with 140 points. This year’s scoring unit isn’t that awful, scoring 18.8 points per game. Yet, when your only wins on the season are against NFC West foes St. Louis and San Francisco, it’s obvious the season has been a painful endeavor. The team formally known as “the Seabags” is 0-7 ATS vs. offensive teams scoring 24 or more points a game over the last two years.

Defensively, Seattle has been torched time and again and will have a hard time keeping the Cowboys out of the end zone. Opponents have outgained the Seahawks by a hefty 130 yards a game (151 YPG on the road), with the majority of the difference coming through the air. Tony Romo should be all smiles working against a defense that’s yielded nearly 3,000 yards passing with only five interceptions. Seattle picked off 20 passes in 2007. Seattle is 6-14-1 ATS as non-division away underdogs.

In his second game back from a broken finger, Romo threw for 341 yards and three touchdowns to lead a 35-22 victory over San Francisco that allowed Dallas to keep pace in the playoff race. The positive vibe emitting from the Cowboys locker room is that of Terrell Owens, who got is quarterback back, with seven catches for 213 yards to help Dallas. Owens' total was the second-most of his career, behind only the 283 yards he had in the 2000 game in which he caught an NFL-record 20 passes. Facing the league’s next to last pass defense should make T.O’s face light-up more than a bite of fresh pumpkin pie. The Boys are 8-1 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 since 2006.

The Dallas defense could have a feast of there own against the sinking Seattle offense. The Seattle offensive line could not move a dish of mashed potatoes, let alone the Cowboys defense. The term “jailbreak” could come up more often than the size of this year’s bird. Dallas is 19-6 ATS in home games versus poor offensive teams averaging 285 or fewer yards per game.

The Seahawks haven’t played on Thanksgiving since 1986 when they defeated Dallas 31-14. Including the playoff game a few years back, the Cowboys lead the all-time series 6-5. Soon to be defunct head coach mike Holmgren has seen his Seattle team post 10-21 ATS record vs. good passing teams averaging seven or more passing yards per attempt.

Thanksgiving Tasty Angle- Home teams that were favorites by six or more in prior game are 11-3 ATS on Thursday’s.


NFL: Philadelphia at Dallas (8:30 PM ET, ESPN)
2008-09-12

ESPN gets the NFC’s most anticipated matchup of the week for its Monday night feature, as NFC East rivals Philadelphia and Dallas collide. Both teams are 1-0 after convincing week 1 wins, with the Eagles trouncing the Rams and the Cowboys easily turning back Cleveland. With difficult schedules lying ahead and the early division lead on the line, this game means a lot for both clubs.

If history means anything, Philadelphia could be in good shape, as they are 14-8 SU & 13-7 in the L22 meetings between these teams, and the road team has gone 15-8 ATS in the L23. In fact, the visitor has won outright in the last three games and four of the last five. Dallas (-7.5) is on a 6-12 ATS run in division games, while Philly has gone 8-1 ATS in its L9 as a road dog.

Even though the Eagles have captured five of the last seven NFC East titles, few prognosticators pick them to finish anywhere but third or fourth in 2008. Philadelphia won the division each year from 2001-04 and again in ’06, but even with victories in its last three games last season it brought up the rear with an 8-8 record.

The first of the Eagles’ three wins down the stretch in 2007 came in Dallas, 10-6, as Philadelphia became the first team to hold the Cowboys without a touchdown in more than three years. Six weeks earlier, the ‘Boys romped in the first meeting 38-17.

Dallas, which hosts this season’s first meeting between these long-time rivals, won its first five games a year ago and never looked back in winning the division crown. Last week it emerged victorious for the third time in its last four openers, knocking off Cleveland 28-10. The Browns, a trendy pick to take the next step and be a playoff team, had few answers for an offense spearheaded by Tony Romo (320 yards), Marion Barber (two touchdowns) and Terrell Owens.

One of the Eagles’ strengths should be their secondary, as long as disgruntled Lito Sheppard does his job and leaves his trade request to the front office. Sheppard is serving as the backup to starters Asante Samuel and Sheldon Brown, though he’ll be on the field often in nickel situations according to renowned defensive coordinator Jim Johnson.
In one of the early games last Sunday, Philadelphia steamrolled its way past St. Louis, 38-3. Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook led a big-play offense that amassed 522 yards. McNabb threw for 361 yards and three touchdowns, including a 90-yard hookup with Hank Baskett, and Westbrook added 91 yards and a score. Baskett, rookie DeSean Jackson and Greg Lewis all surpassed 100 yards receiving. Maybe it’s not a bad thing starting wide receivers Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown missed the contest with a hernia and strained hamstring, respectively. Curtis probably won’t return until October, but Brown, who scored the only touchdown in the team’s win over Dallas a year ago, could be ready on Monday night.

Last year marked only the second time this decade one of these teams didn’t sweep the two-game series. Including playoffs, the Cowboys lead all-time by a 54-44 margin. The rematch in Week 17 at Lincoln Financial Field will be the 100th meeting.
PREDICTION
Dallas has only eight different names on its roster compared to last season—the fewest of any team in the league. The Cowboys are not only hungry and have a lot to prove, they’re cohesive and confident. And they remember what the Eagles did to them here last November.
DALLAS 31, PHILADELPHIA 20


NFL - Cincinnati @ San Francisco (8:15 PM ET – NFL Network)
2007-12-14

It’s unfortunate that Cincinnati is not in the playoff hunt, as the schedule sets up for a season ending run. After beating lowly St. Louis, the Bengals face an even worse San Francisco team. On top of that, they will face winless Miami in two weeks.

Still, at 5-8 SU & 4-8 ATS, HC Marvin Lewis’ club is playing out the string now, a dangerous mindset for a road favorite. In this Saturday night affair, Cincy is laying more than a TD to a 49ers team that has lost 10 of 11 games outright and is 2-9 ATS in that span. At 1-5 SU & ATS, home field has been anything but advantageous for HC Mike Nolan’s team as well. With a NFL worst 13.2 PPG average (9.3 at home) and 4.3 yards per pass attempt, note that Cincinnati is 15-4 ATS in its L19 vs. teams gaining <5.2 PYA.

The loathsome Cincinnati Bengals continue a season that now resembles a death march towards an end we may all benefit from reaching. This team is bloated with offensive firepower, averaging well over 20 points per game, yet losses continue to pile as a woefully-inadequate defense struggles to support an offensive attack that fails to push a viable rushing effort. Too much is being put on the arm of QB Carson Palmer, a detriment to overburdened field general.

Whether it is the demise of promise unfulfilled from QB Alex Smith, the failures of consistency of a RB (Frank Gore) that served as the catalyst for hope just a year ago, or the complete lack of production offered by a revamped WR corps expected to do so much more, the San Francisco offense is one of the least feared units in the game today. The defense, despite recent struggles to limit scoring, enjoys the commodities to succeed. It is the inability to score points of their own that keeps the 49ers in the basement.

Keys to the Game
Another lost season in Cincinnati has them trying to finish with urgency, taking a potent passing game to the Bay Area for their first Saturday night matchup this year. Carson Palmer still leads a top-five passing offense against the Niners’ defense that is below the median point stopping throwing teams. Over the years the Bengals have pounced on teams that are being outscored by six or more points per game on the season in the second half of the season with 15-4 ATS record. It is noteworthy home dogs on Saturday’s are 2-9 ATS the last four years.

Trends
~ Cincinnati is 4-10 ATS in the second of two or more non-division contests.
~ San Francisco is 4-6 ATS the last six seasons in the second of two or more home games.

StatFox Edge – Bengals cover